SYN Team Predicitions Topic

Methodology:

For this, given the various aspects at play here, I started by taking all the players from the salary sheets provided by WIS and removed all players except those from 1975-2000. I put each the hitters and pitchers into their own sheet within a workbook. I then had a sheet for each teams hitting and pitching where I copy/pasted the rosters from the league. I had two additional sheets that, using a script, pulled the players for each team from the salary sheet data so that I had their # stats, secondary fielding, etc... I then went through all the players and replaced their fielding ratings with actual FLD/RF for each position. For each team I summed up their team stats for hitting, pitching and fielding. For fielding I summed up by position. For hitting I weighed only a teams top 5000 PA by OPS#, for pitching only a teams top 1250 IP by ERC#. For fielding, I weighed by 600 PA/POS, and for positions that did not have 600 PA, I used my best guess to gauge the mot likely OOP option and used their OOP FLD/RF stats for the team fielding there. I also ID'd all AAA players and re-normalized them to 2024 to get # numbers for them to include them accurately in the above calculations. [Added: I did not add in any of the AAA players as without trades I could not see them. Also, with real names, the normalizing would not be needed. So the calculation is only on the drafted roster.]

From there, I created a RC estimate for the hitting, with a RC adjustment for the fielding using zubinsums values for errors and +/- plays. I used jfranco's formula for pitching RC, to create a similar value for pitching to put all three onto the same metric. From there, I just added a teams fielding and pitching RC together and ran the hitting and the pitching+fielding into a pythag to generate the predictions. Obviously, the goal here is to manage these teams into more than what we are presented with, so hopefully this serves as a baseline for gauging a managers success

Document for anyone who wants to check it out or error check me: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_x-BZ0uTtqv1I1TfsY4WoHTv8evOUeIbSPfhTMXfRso/edit?usp=sharing
8/27/2025 10:30 PM (edited)
National League East:

Beavis & Butthead Do Whatifsports 0.653 106 56
Festering Piles of Putresence 0.548 89 73
No rain delays under the dome 0.409 66 96
GPs Gift of no Nething 0.544 88 74
8/27/2025 9:46 PM (edited)
National League Central:

Ask Me About My Beanie Baby Collection 0.571 93 69
NJ Turd Burglars 0.472 77 85
Expertise in Sucky P Shines Finally 0.384 62 100
Hitless in Seattle 0.327 53 109
8/27/2025 9:46 PM (edited)
National League West:

The Genie's Lamp 0.550 89 73
Ugly and Worse 0.485 79 83
Kingdon Schadenfraude 0.483 78 84
Hope Your Team Sucks 1975-2000 0.367 59 103
8/27/2025 9:46 PM (edited)
American League East:

You Can Unscrew A Lightbulb 0.591 96 66
Bad to the Bone 0.523 85 77
Winning Optional 0.452 73 89
Pride of the Shortbus 0.389 63 99
8/27/2025 9:46 PM (edited)
American League Central:

The. Cuckolds 0.699 113 49
ROUSTABOUTS Take My Team Please 0.602 97 65
Nebbish Homeboys 0.518 84 78
Free Popsicles 0.455 74 88
8/27/2025 9:47 PM (edited)
American League West:

Unintended Consequences 0.583 95 67
Bargain Basement Braves 0.545 88 74
I Love Lamp 0.475 77 85
The Mighty Cobra 0.376 61 101
8/27/2025 9:47 PM (edited)
Playoffs:

NL:

Ask Me About My Beanie Baby Collection
Beavis & Butthead Do Whatifsports
Festering Piles of Putresence
The Genie's Lamp

I think this will come down to Beanie Baby Collection and Beavis & Butthead... AAA players and fatigue will have the most impact and in short series, Pedro will be more important, so I think Beavis ends up representing the NL.


AL:
The. Cuckolds
ROUSTABOUTS Take My Team Please
You Can Unscrew A Lightbulb
Unintended Consequences

The Cuckolds won't have much fatigue to deal with, which I think will help them hold out in the AL. And ultimately take the title.
8/27/2025 9:54 PM (edited)
Awards:
NL
:
MVP:
Frank Thomas - The Genie's Lamp

CYA:
Pedro Martinez - Beavis & Butthead do WHATifSPORTS

AL:
MVP:
Larry Walker - You Can Unscrew a Lightbulb

CYA:
Pedro Martinez - Nebbish Homeboys
8/27/2025 9:57 PM (edited)
Final Notes:

Fatigue, Ballparks, OOP players, and AAA are all going to have bigger impacts than I was able to account for above. I did my best to account for each as best I could in these calculations, but I didn't have much time to spend on this overall and couldn't add in full park effects, player by player fatigue calculators, etc... and I still can't see AAA unless they've appeared in a game, and that's alot of clicking through to individual players and their details in the draft center...

So, there could be some very large swings from these predictions, that said, I did my best to take this serious and use a methodology that might produce some fascinating and as accurate as possible results.
8/27/2025 10:01 PM (edited)
Interesting Observations:

Best Offenses:
You Can Unscrew A Lightbulb
Beavis & Butthead Do Whatifsports
The Genie's Lamp
These three teams will likely all score more than 1,000 runs.

Worst Offenses:
Hope Your Team Sucks 1975-2000
Expertise in Sucky P Shines Finally
Hitless in Seattle

These teams may struggle to score 300 runs.

Best Pitching (without regard for defense):
ROUSTABOUTS Take My Team Please
GPs Gift of no Nething
The. Cuckolds

These teams all have a shot, if it weren't for their defenses, of allowing fewer than 700 runs... however, defense will come into play, so...

Best Pitching (with regard to defense):
ROUSTABOUTS Take My Team Please
The. Cuckolds
Expertise in Sucky P Shines Finally

These teams should still allow less than 800 runs.

Best Defenses:
ROUSTABOUTS Take My Team Please
Kingdon Schadenfraude
Expertise in Sucky P Shines Finally

Worst Defense:
The Mighty Cobra
Ask Me About My Beanie Baby Collection
The Genie's Lamp

These defenses alone could cost their teams more than 300 runs each
8/27/2025 10:07 PM (edited)
Most Frequently Used Player Seasons:
Hitters:
1981 Ainge Danny 8
1985 Wright George 6
1975 Sundberg Jim 6
1987 Biancalana Buddy 5
1981 Dejesus Ivan 5
1981 Tyson Mike 4
1988 Ripken Billy 4
1976 Blair Paul 4
1976 Garcia Pedro 3
1989 Huson Jeff 3
1981 Cabell Enos 3
1991 Deer Rob 3
1989 Shelby John 3
1981 Spencer Jim 3
1991 Galarraga Andres 3

Pitchers:
2000 Lima Jose 0 7
1981 Waits Rick 0 6
1980 Lamp Dennis 0 5
1996 Van Poppel Todd 0 5
1999 Kile Darryl 0 5
1994 Deshaies Jim 0 5
1994 Brown Kevin 0 4
1980 Torrez Mike 0 4
1986 Mahler Rick 0 4
1994 Belcher Tim 0 4
1999 Bohanon Brian 0 4
1994 Fleming Dave 0 4
1996 Abbott Jim 0 4
1994 Williams Brian 0 3
1996 Ritz Kevin 0 3
1998 Hernandez Livan 0 3
1999 Hawkins LaTroy 0 3
1995 Moore Mike 0 3

Players with multiple individual seasons used:
1996 Bones Ricky
1995 Bones Ricky
1983 Brooks Hubie
1991 Brooks Hubie
1982 Brooks Hubie
1993 Brunansky Tom
1988 Brunansky Tom
1975 Burroughs Jeff
1979 Burroughs Jeff
1978 Champion Mike
1977 Champion Mike
1992 Cochrane Dave
1989 Cochrane Dave
2000 Daal Omar
1997 Daal Omar
1990 Eckersley Dennis
1989 Eckersley Dennis
1994 Erickson Scott
1996 Erickson Scott
1993 Erickson Scott
1982 Flynn Doug
1979 Flynn Doug
1991 Galarraga Andres
1993 Galarraga Andres
1977 Harrelson Bud
1975 Harrelson Bud
1997 Hill Glenallen
1999 Hill Glenallen
1991 Hundley Todd
1992 Hundley Todd
1988 Johnson Lance
1994 Johnson Lance
1982 Keough Matt
1979 Keough Matt
1982 Kingman Dave
1983 Kingman Dave
1984 Krueger Bill
1995 Krueger Bill
1999 Lewis Darren
1995 Lewis Darren
1994 Lewis Darren
1986 Mahler Rick
1985 Mahler Rick
1980 Manning Rick
1978 Manning Rick
1999 Martinez Pedro
2000 Martinez Pedro
1992 McRae Brian
1999 McRae Brian
1978 Meyer Dan
1975 Meyer Dan
1995 Moore Mike
1987 Moore Mike
1980 Moseby Lloyd
1982 Moseby Lloyd
1998 Navarro Jaime
1997 Navarro Jaime
1983 O'Brien Pete
1992 O'Brien Pete
1989 Quinones Rey
1986 Quinones Rey
1983 Rose Pete
1979 Rose Pete
1989 Shelby John
1991 Shelby John
1990 Shelby John
1994 Sierra Ruben
1993 Sierra Ruben
1995 Sierra Ruben
1985 Tabler Pat
1989 Tabler Pat
1982 Tabler Pat
1989 Thomas Andres
1988 Thomas Andres
1980 Torrez Mike
1983 Torrez Mike
1985 Trillo Manny
1975 Trillo Manny
1996 Van Poppel Todd
1994 Van Poppel Todd
1982 Viola Frank
1983 Viola Frank
1994 Williams Brian
1996 Williams Brian
1986 Witt Bobby
1999 Witt Bobby
1996 Witt Bobby
1998 Wright Jamey
1997 Wright Jamey


8/27/2025 10:29 PM (edited)
I like a good challenge, but being predicted to have the worst record may be more than I can overcome! At least the team I made is predicted to be pretty bad, too.
8/27/2025 11:00 PM
I’m disappointed to see the team I built projected to make the playoffs. Should have skimped on innings maybe.
8/27/2025 11:45 PM
ton of work here. Thanks just4me. We'll see how this works out.
8/28/2025 1:25 AM
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