wow this is awesome. except for trying to say the team i drafted will win 100+ games. anyway, great work

Since I know Bagwell is playing 3B, I plugged Bagwell in on the sheet, and that alone cut the predicted W for Genie’s Lamp from 89 to 87 based on the defensive impact. That shows how big a swing the other OOP swings could be that I did not account for.

in short Bagwell’s fielding impact went from a prediction of 9 runs allowed to over 40 runs allowed

Posted by just4me on 8/28/2025 7:01:00 PM (view original):
Since I know Bagwell is playing 3B, I plugged Bagwell in on the sheet, and that alone cut the predicted W for Genie’s Lamp from 89 to 87 based on the defensive impact. That shows how big a swing the other OOP swings could be that I did not account for.

in short Bagwell’s fielding impact went from a prediction of 9 runs allowed to over 40 runs allowed

Interesting. I assumed putting Bagwell at 3b made more sense since he’s a stronger fielder than Thomas. Also he gets fewer chances there than he would up the middle.

Oh yeah, Thomas would be worse… for teams that require OOP, I didn’t figure out specific OOP players, just assigned a 5% fielding hit there from an average fielder at the position to roughly simulate it.

that’s why I added OOP as one of those things that could swing these more than several games once actual effects start to show. I’m playing guys OOP at 3B and SS on one of my teams and that’s probably going to cost 3-4 wins from the prediction as well.

This is neat. I am just ignoring all the information that says my team will be bad and the team I drafted will be good.

One of the teams I drafted is projected to make the playoffs, and one of the teams I am running is supposed to be among the 3 worst… I’m operating on the assumption that the effects not captured will go my way both directions

The team I drafted(Cuckolds)looks like it may win it all and the team I received (Roustabouts) will be their biggest challengers…If this would ever be an outcome in a real league where I tried to be competitive, it would be a miracle…

Posted by just4me on 8/27/2025 10:01:00 PM (view original):
Final Notes:

Fatigue, Ballparks, OOP players, and AAA are all going to have bigger impacts than I was able to account for above. I did my best to account for each as best I could in these calculations, but I didn't have much time to spend on this overall and couldn't add in full park effects, player by player fatigue calculators, etc... and I still can't see AAA unless they've appeared in a game, and that's alot of clicking through to individual players and their details in the draft center...

So, there could be some very large swings from these predictions, that said, I did my best to take this serious and use a methodology that might produce some fascinating and as accurate as possible results.

I expect fatigue will be the #1 factor in determining final standings. If I could know one variable in order to predict final standings, I'd much rather know total PA/IP than OPS/WHIP, etc.

Posted by contrarian23 on 8/31/2025 8:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 8/27/2025 10:01:00 PM (view original):
Final Notes:

Fatigue, Ballparks, OOP players, and AAA are all going to have bigger impacts than I was able to account for above. I did my best to account for each as best I could in these calculations, but I didn't have much time to spend on this overall and couldn't add in full park effects, player by player fatigue calculators, etc... and I still can't see AAA unless they've appeared in a game, and that's alot of clicking through to individual players and their details in the draft center...

So, there could be some very large swings from these predictions, that said, I did my best to take this serious and use a methodology that might produce some fascinating and as accurate as possible results.

I expect fatigue will be the #1 factor in determining final standings. If I could know one variable in order to predict final standings, I'd much rather know total PA/IP than OPS/WHIP, etc.

To try to account for fatigue, in the model, any team with less than 1250 IP or 5000 PA I reduced their corresponding RC. I reduced the pitchers quality by 35%, defense by 20% and the hitters by 15%. I doubt that will be sufficient for some teams, but will possibly be over-applied on 1-2.

Posted by Lewb on 8/29/2025 7:45:00 AM (view original):
The team I drafted(Cuckolds)looks like it may win it all and the team I received (Roustabouts) will be their biggest challengers…If this would ever be an outcome in a real league where I tried to be competitive, it would be a miracle…

hey! this is a real league!