Been out of the country for 2+ weeks. A lot has happened since then.... time for another review of first round picks...

40 game update

League 01: Cardinals
1907 Ed Karger
In two starts, he is 1-0, 3.14 ERA for a 7-1 team. Grade: A-
20G Update: 6 GS, 46.2 IP, 3-1, 3.28 ERA for a 14-6 team. Grade A
40G Update: 12 GS, 96.1 IP, 5-4, 2.99 ERA (ranked 3rd) for a 23-17 team. Grade A
121G Update: 35 GS, 268 IP, 16-13, 4.13 ERA for a 74-47 team (1st place). Grade B+

League 02: Yankees
1904 Jack Chesbro
In three starts, he is 1-2, 8.00 ERA for a 4-4 team. Grade: D-
20G Update: 9 GS, 52 IP, 4-3, 6.23 ERA for a 12-8 team. Grade C-
40G Update: 17 GS, 105.2 IP, 8-5, 5.62 ERA for a 21-19 team. Grade B-
121G Update: 55 GS, 344 IP, 25-15, 4.68 ERA for a 70-51 team (1st place). Grade A

League 03: Giants
1907 Christry Mathewson
In two starts, he is 1-1, 7.50 ERA for a 5-3 team. Grade: D-
20G Update: 5 GS, 34.2 IP, 3-2, 4.93 ERA for a 12-8 team. Grade C
40G Update: 11 GS, 78.0 IP, 5-6, 3.81 ERA for a 22-18 team. Grade C+
121G Update: 37 GS, 267 IP, 20-11, 3.27 ERA for a 71-50 team (1st place). Grade A+

League 04: Red Sox
1907 Cy Young
In two starts, he is 2-0, 2.65 ERA for a 5-3 team. Grade: A
20G Update: 6 GS, 44.1 IP, 3-2, 4.67 ERA for a 10-10 team. Grade B-
40G Update: 12 GS, 93.1 IP, 8-3, 3.86 ERA for a 16-24 team. Grade A
121G Update: 38 GS, 289 IP, 21-9, 3.43 ERA for a 59-62 team (2nd place). Grade A+

League 05: Cubs
1902 Jack Taylor
In two starts, he is 1-1, 4.26 ERA for a 6-2 team. Grade: B-
20G Update: 6 GS, 44.2 IP, 2-2, 3.63 ERA for a 10-10 team. Grade B
40G Update: 12 GS, 87.2 IP, 6-3, 3.29 ERA for a 24-16 team. Grade A
121G Update: 41 GS, 304 IP, 21-11, 3.70 ERA for a 66-55 team (1st place). Grade A

League 06: White Sox
1911 Ed Walsh
In three starts, he is 1-2, 3.13 ERA for a 2-6 team. Grade: B (not his fault, no run support)
20G Update: 7 GS, 52 IP, 4-2, 2.60 ERA for a 9-11 team. Grade A
40G Update: 13 GS, 95.2 IP, 6-4, 3.10 ERA for a 18-22 team. Grade A-
121G Update: 44 GS, 310 IP, 16-14, 3.26 ERA for a 57-64 team (3rd place). Grade A-

League 07: Dodgers
1907 Kaiser Wilhelm
In two starts, he is 1-1, 6.75 ERA for a 6-2 team. Grade: C-
20G Update: 6 GS, 32.1 IP, 2-4, 8.64 ERA for a 10-10 team. Grade D-
40G Update: 11 GS, 70.0 IP, 5-6, 6.17 ERA for a 17-23 team. Grade D+
121G Update: 33 GS, 227 IP, 13-14, 5.28 ERA for a 64-57 team (1st place). Grade C-

League 08: Athletics
1908 Eddie Plank
In two starts, he is 2-0, 2.25 ERA for a 7-1 team. Grade A+
20G Update: 5 GS, 35 IP, 4-0, 2.83 ERA for a 14-6 team. Grade A+
40G Update: 10 GS, 35 IP, 8-1, 3.24 ERA for a 26-14 team. Grade A+
121G Update: 32 GS, 213 IP, 17-8, 3.46 ERA for a 67-54 team (1st place). Grade A

League 09: Phillies
1917 Pete Alexander
In three starts, he is 2-0, 2.45 ERA for a 4-4 team. Grade: A+
20G Update: 6 GS, 45 IP, 5-0, 2.20 ERA for a 12-8 team. Grade: A+
40G Update: 13 GS, 101.0 IP, 10-1, 2.41 ERA for a 27-13 team. Grade: A+
121G Update: 41 GS, 317 IP, 21-10, 3.47 ERA for a 67-54 team (2nd place). Grade A

League 10: Indians
1909 Addie Joss
In two starts, he is 0-1, 6.00 ERA for a 3-5 team. Grade: C-
20G Update: 5 GS, 30.1 IP, 1-2, 5.64 ERA for a 10-10 team. Grade C-
40G Update: 9 GS, 58.2 IP, 2-3, 4.76 ERA for a 21-19 team. Grade C
121G Update: 29 GS, 194 IP, 10-10, 3.98 ERA for a 67-54 team (1st place). Grade B-

League 11: Pirates
1951 Ralph Kiner
His slash is .414, .541, 586 for a 4-4 team. Grade: A+
20G Update: 92 PA, .384, .511, .548, 2 HRs, 12 RBIs for a 6-14 team. Grade A+
40G Update: 92 PA, .361, .489, .551, 5 HRs, 28 RBIs for a 16-24 team. Grade A+
121G Update: 552 PA, .294, .424, .460, 14 HRs, 80 RBIs for a 47-74 team (last place). Grade B

League 12: Twins
1968 Dean Chance
In two starts, he is 2-0, 3.21 ERA for a 4-4 team. Grade: A
20G Update: 5 GS, 34.1 IP, 4-1, 3.41 ERA for a 11-9 team. Grade A+
40G Update: 10 GS, 72.1 IP, 9-1, 2.24 ERA for a 24-16 team. Grade A+
121G Update: 31 GS, 218 IP, 16-10, 3.59 ERA for a 62-59 team (1st place). Grade A

League 13: Reds
1993 Jose Rijo
In two starts, he is 2-0, 2.70 ERA for a 7-1 team. Grade: A+
20G Update: 5 GS, 28 IP, 2-2, 6.11 ERA for a 14-6 team. Grade D+
40G Update: 10 GS, 54.1 IP, 4-4, 5.63 ERA for a 24-16 team. Grade C-
121G Update: 23 GS, 132 IP, 8-11, 6.34 ERA for a 70-51 team (2nd place). Grade D

League 14: Tigers
1944 Dizzy Trout
In two starts, he is 1-0, 4.50 ERA for a 6-2 team. Grade: B
20G Update: 5 GS, 35 IP, 4-0, 4.11 ERA for a 14-6 team. Grade A-
40G Update: 11 GS, 72.2 IP, 6-4, 4.71 ERA for a 25-15 team. Grade B+
121G Update: 39 GS, 256 IP, 12-19, 4.60 ERA for a 64-57 team (2ndt place). Grade D

League 15: Braves
1919 Art Nehf
In two starts, he is 1-1, 5.84 ERA for a 3-5 team. Grade: C
20G Update: 5 GS, 32.2 IP, 3-2, 5.79 ERA for a 10-10 team. Grade C
40G Update: 10 GS, 70.2 IP, 6-3, 4.84 ERA for a 21-19 team. Grade B
121G Update: 33 GS, 236 IP, 16-13, 4.58 ERA for a 61-60 team (2nd place). Grade B

League 16: Orioles
1904 Harry Howell
In two starts, he is 1-1, 10.50 ERA for a 3-5 team. Grade: D
20G Update: 5 GS, 32.1 IP, 2-1, 6.68 ERA for a 11-9 Team. Grade C-
40G Update: 10 GS, 70.0 IP, 6-2, 4.76 ERA for a 23-17 Team. Grade B
121G Update: 33 GS, 254 IP, 18-8, 3.43 ERA for a 71-50 team (1st place). Grade A

Summary
A+, A, A-: 9 players
B+, B, B-: 4 players
C+, C, C-: 1 players
D+, D, D-: 2 players

My Yankees (82-69) have a stupidly good 1-run record (29-14) but it has nothing to do with my bullpen. The average team has 35 saves and have blown 17 saves. My team has 31 saves and have blown 22 saves. That being said, here are five of my last five losses...

* Tied 4-4 in the 8th inning. '96 Mariano Rivera comes (1.38 erc#) in to pitch the 8th. Six runs later, we lose 10-4.

* Two games later, the game goes into extra innings, tied 2-2. I score 3 in the top of the 10th inning. (Rivera had already been used). '96 David Cone (2.10 erc#) comes in and gives up 3 in bottom of 10th. We lose in eleven innings.

* Very next game, we are up 3-0 going into the bottom of the 9th. Hunter leaves due to pitch count. Wetteland (2.67 erc#) comes in at 100% and gives up single, HR, single, walk. Ruffing gives up go ahead single. We lose in 10 innings

* A few games later, we are up 5-0 through 7 innings. '04 Chesbro leaves with 2 outs and 2 on (pitch count). Rivera comes in and blows the lead. After 3 batters for Rivera, Cone comes in and completes the collapse. Eight runs, all coming with two outs, to lose 8-5.

* Two games later, we lead 5-2 going into the top of the 9th. Rivera comes in to start the 9th (Chesbro hit his pitch count). Four runs score with him recording only one out. Lose 6-5.

We are 4-6 last 10 games, currently tied for the division lead and one loss away from not advancing to round 2. This has been one of the most brutal stretches I've ever had, in terms of a stud RP blowing a big lead, over and over.

Heading into Game 162, I had 10 advancement spots locked up and 4 still up in the air. I went a perfect 0-for-4 in those.

ATL: lost 9-1 while schwarze won by 4 and lost the Exp tiebreaker by 7 THOUSANDTHS (.5431 to .5424), which was just 2 runs off

CIN: lost the Exp tiebreaker to njbigwig by nearly double, 13 thousandths (3 runs)

PIT: lost the Exp tiebreaker by actually a lot, 13 runs

OAK: lost the Record tiebreaker by 1 game

That's brutal.

But you did win two "coin flips" situations in game 161 with your Yankees and Cubs teams.

(I also won two coin flips in game 161, with my Yankees and White Sox teams)

Posted by schwarze on 10/8/2026 10:03:00 PM (view original):
That's brutal.

But you did win two "coin flips" situations in game 161 with your Yankees and Cubs teams.

(I also won two coin flips in game 161, with my Yankees and White Sox teams)

Yeah and he knocked me out in both of those. This was an incredibly fun league. I believe half my teams advanced. I had the A's sneak in but lost out on 2 additional teams advancing on last day. Giants team led most of first half, had a massive collapse and then tried to make a late run but fell short.

Based on the early round 2 results of the previous draft tournament, you can't assume round 1 results will translate the same to round 2. In many instances, the team that advanced due to Best Exp Win% (i.e., wildcard 2) often ends up winning the round 2 division (mostly due to bad 1-run luck reversing).

My 104-win Yankees team (who played in the the lowered salaried A.L. in round 1) is currently in 3rd place (84-70) while Jtpsops' Yankees team has nearly clinched the division at 93-61 (his team won his round 1 division with a .518 exp win%). Meanwhile, my 83-79 Red Sox won a weak division (AL West) in round 1 but ended up winning 95 games in round 2 to advance to round 3. Anybody can advance to round 3.

Some interesting analysis from the 1-3-5-7-9 Round 1 (16 leagues):

- Of the 13 owners with 15-16 teams, all advanced at least 2 teams.
- schwarze led the way with 14, I was 2nd with 10, and dvorr80 was next with 8. Three others (kstober, njbigwig, DarthDurron) had 7.
- This was interesting I thought: (a) I led the tournament in WPCT at .551 (schwarze: .544) but (b) schwarze led in Exp% (.556 to .549). However, while he was UNLUCKY in runs -> wins, he was LUCKY in divisional placement. He won 11 divisions vs my 7, despite me edging him out in average Overall Rank in the league (4.6 to 4.8). Could have been placement, but my AI-aided analysis says there was no significant AL/NL split.
- schwarze was the only owner to rate above average in offense and defense. Myself (obviously) and bbondsmvp were the only offense-focused owners (above average Offense; below average Defense). dvorr80, njbigwig, DarthDurron, kstober, and ff09 were the opposite.

Thanks for the analysis.

I typically copy/paste all the team stats (hitting, pitching, defense) as well as the standings into a spreadsheet for later analysis. I did this with the last tournament but haven't found the time to do a deep dive yet. I still plan on doing this (for both tournaments). Would be interesting to compare the results from each tournament.

Regarding division placement, I didn't really have any specific strategy like in the last tournament (i.e., trying to avoid the higher salaried N.L.). Sometimes, I spent a ton of salary on players I ultimately didn't need (but wanted just in case).

For example, my Yankees team had Paul O'Neill ($5.2M, 85 pa), Wade Boggs ($3.4M, 6 pa), Mariano Duncan ($2.8M, 10 pa), Bill Dickey ($3.2M, 31 pa) combine for 132 pa. Had I gone cheap with those roster spots, I drop to the NL West (maybe even AL East). I made the decision early on to not worry salary and just roster players that might be helpful.

Played 15-16 Teams	STL	NYY	SFG	BOS	CHC	CHW	LAD	OAK
Owner	Lg01__	Lg02__	Lg03__	Lg04__	Lg05__	Lg06__	Lg07__	Lg08
footballmm11	98*	88	88	83	90	95	89	85
schwarze	100*	91*	97	82	85*	83*	82*	93*
dvorr80	88	88	83	93	89	72	85	78
njbigwig	92	89	78*	87	77	96		99*
bbondsmvp	89	81	84	83	69	79	83	86
DarthDurron	65	94*	95	91	91*	82	82	88
kstober	79	83	82	94*	82	80	80	78
ff09	89	84	74	84	91	81	87	79
bigsteve12	74	63	79	89	73	72	84	82
thejuice6	77	80	76	70	82	76	77	68
calhoop	48	72	72	54	85	73	85	81
Ribbentrop	76	66	67	74	82	88*	76	65
3dayrotation	70	72	88*	78	75	79	65	61
.
Played 1-6 Teams	STL	NYY	SFG	BOS	CHC	CHW	LAD	OAK
Owner	Lg01	Lg02	Lg03	Lg04	Lg05	Lg06	Lg07	Lg08
redcped				69		99	85*
ybjsports	94	84
Jtpsops		84	83	80		74
darny10
pmars2001		77	76					84
nocomm999					89		72
SAKABAKBRG			74	85*				83
firesalt							85
mllama54	80						79	86
thebubbaq					64
ronthegenius					72
rmarksduke
spinaldog	77
SteveIzzy						67
grayfoxx

Played 15-16 Teams	PHI	CLE	PIT	MIN	CIN	DET	ATL	BAL
Owner	Lg09__	Lg10__	Lg11__	Lg12__	Lg13__	Lg14__	Lg15__	Lg16__	Total___	Leagues	Win%
footballmm11	68	93*	82	87	86	107*	89	101*	1429	16	0.551
schwarze	88	89	67	91*	94*	84	86	98	1410	16	0.544
dvorr80	95	81	94*	78	95	75	91	79	1364	16	0.526
njbigwig	83	78	82	81	86	85	80	83	1276	15	0.525
bbondsmvp	85*	83	90	80	79	92	82	85*	1330	16	0.513
DarthDurron	77	81	76	74	80	79	77	95	1327	16	0.512
kstober	79	76	82	93	75	84*	93*	79	1319	16	0.509
ff09	75	79	84	85	76	75	71	89	1303	16	0.503
bigsteve12	77	96	89*	81	58	78	80	85	1260	16	0.486
thejuice6	90*		74	66	89	87	67	67	1146	15	0.472
calhoop	95	70	83	75	83	80	92	65	1213	16	0.468
Ribbentrop	70	88	70	67	80	76	73	59	1177	16	0.454
3dayrotation	78	84	83	76	75	72	49	69	1174	16	0.453
.
Played 1-6 Teams	PHI	CLE	PIT	MIN	CIN	DET	ATL	BAL
Owner	Lg09	Lg10	Lg11	Lg12	Lg13	Lg14	Lg15	Lg16	Total___	Leagues	Win%
redcped							98		351	4	0.542
ybjsports			88			78			344	4	0.531
Jtpsops	75			102*					498	6	0.512
darny10						83			83	1	0.512
pmars2001					90		85		412	5	0.509
nocomm999	83			80				83	407	5	0.502
SAKABAKBRG							83*		325	4	0.502
firesalt		76							161	2	0.497
mllama54		73							318	4	0.491
thebubbaq			89	80				84	317	4	0.489
ronthegenius	78	90*						75	315	4	0.486
rmarksduke					78*				78	1	0.481
spinaldog			63						140	2	0.432
SteveIzzy					72				139	2	0.429
grayfoxx		59				61			120	2	0.370

I've highlighted (bolded) the teams above that advanced to round 2. An asterisk next to the win total indicates World Series participant. Yellow highlight indicates World Series winner.

My White Sox and Braves teams had the best regular-season records and both bombed out in the LCS.

The White Sox led 3-0, at which point I pushed Ed Walsh back in the rotation to save him for the WS. Ask me how that worked out.

I know the feeling. My Giants (97-65, .601 exp win%) lost to an 88-74 team. And of course, that team will face a 78-84 team in the World Series (as njbigwig beat DarthDurron's 95-67 team).

My 98-64 (.636 exp win%) Orioles team was leading 4-1 top of 9th in game 7. Eleven runs later (8 of those runs coming with 2 outs), bbondsmvp's team (85-77, .504 exp win%) is heading to the World Series where I expect him to beat footballmm11's 101-61 (.623) team.

And of course, my 83-79 (.511) White Sox team just beat footballmm11's 95-67 (.585) team in 7 games to advance to the World Series where we will face RIbbentrop's 88-74 (.512) team after he beat your 99-63 juggernaut.

And SAKABAKBRG got both of his division winning teams into the World Series. His 85-77 (.491) beat dvorr80's 93-69 (.561) team and his 83-79 (.501) beat calhoop's 92-70 (.543).

I updated the world series results above. Two 78-win teams, one 82-win team and two 83-win teams made it to the World Series. They went 5-0. Only 4 of the 16 World Series saw the team with the better record won. And don't get me started on the LCS.