wow this is awesome. except for trying to say the team i drafted will win 100+ games. anyway, great work

Since I know Bagwell is playing 3B, I plugged Bagwell in on the sheet, and that alone cut the predicted W for Genie’s Lamp from 89 to 87 based on the defensive impact. That shows how big a swing the other OOP swings could be that I did not account for.

in short Bagwell’s fielding impact went from a prediction of 9 runs allowed to over 40 runs allowed

Posted by just4me on 8/28/2025 7:01:00 PM (view original):
Since I know Bagwell is playing 3B, I plugged Bagwell in on the sheet, and that alone cut the predicted W for Genie’s Lamp from 89 to 87 based on the defensive impact. That shows how big a swing the other OOP swings could be that I did not account for.

in short Bagwell’s fielding impact went from a prediction of 9 runs allowed to over 40 runs allowed

Interesting. I assumed putting Bagwell at 3b made more sense since he’s a stronger fielder than Thomas. Also he gets fewer chances there than he would up the middle.

Oh yeah, Thomas would be worse… for teams that require OOP, I didn’t figure out specific OOP players, just assigned a 5% fielding hit there from an average fielder at the position to roughly simulate it.

that’s why I added OOP as one of those things that could swing these more than several games once actual effects start to show. I’m playing guys OOP at 3B and SS on one of my teams and that’s probably going to cost 3-4 wins from the prediction as well.

This is neat. I am just ignoring all the information that says my team will be bad and the team I drafted will be good.

One of the teams I drafted is projected to make the playoffs, and one of the teams I am running is supposed to be among the 3 worst… I’m operating on the assumption that the effects not captured will go my way both directions

The team I drafted(Cuckolds)looks like it may win it all and the team I received (Roustabouts) will be their biggest challengers…If this would ever be an outcome in a real league where I tried to be competitive, it would be a miracle…

Posted by just4me on 8/27/2025 10:01:00 PM (view original):
Final Notes:

Fatigue, Ballparks, OOP players, and AAA are all going to have bigger impacts than I was able to account for above. I did my best to account for each as best I could in these calculations, but I didn't have much time to spend on this overall and couldn't add in full park effects, player by player fatigue calculators, etc... and I still can't see AAA unless they've appeared in a game, and that's alot of clicking through to individual players and their details in the draft center...

So, there could be some very large swings from these predictions, that said, I did my best to take this serious and use a methodology that might produce some fascinating and as accurate as possible results.

I expect fatigue will be the #1 factor in determining final standings. If I could know one variable in order to predict final standings, I'd much rather know total PA/IP than OPS/WHIP, etc.

Posted by contrarian23 on 8/31/2025 8:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 8/27/2025 10:01:00 PM (view original):
Final Notes:

Fatigue, Ballparks, OOP players, and AAA are all going to have bigger impacts than I was able to account for above. I did my best to account for each as best I could in these calculations, but I didn't have much time to spend on this overall and couldn't add in full park effects, player by player fatigue calculators, etc... and I still can't see AAA unless they've appeared in a game, and that's alot of clicking through to individual players and their details in the draft center...

So, there could be some very large swings from these predictions, that said, I did my best to take this serious and use a methodology that might produce some fascinating and as accurate as possible results.

I expect fatigue will be the #1 factor in determining final standings. If I could know one variable in order to predict final standings, I'd much rather know total PA/IP than OPS/WHIP, etc.

To try to account for fatigue, in the model, any team with less than 1250 IP or 5000 PA I reduced their corresponding RC. I reduced the pitchers quality by 35%, defense by 20% and the hitters by 15%. I doubt that will be sufficient for some teams, but will possibly be over-applied on 1-2.

Posted by Lewb on 8/29/2025 7:45:00 AM (view original):
The team I drafted(Cuckolds)looks like it may win it all and the team I received (Roustabouts) will be their biggest challengers…If this would ever be an outcome in a real league where I tried to be competitive, it would be a miracle…

hey! this is a real league!

Game 81 Tracking:

Team	Pythag	Predicted W	Predicted L	Game 81 W	Game 81 L	Game 81 %	Extrapolated W	Extrapolated L	Extrapolated %	W Difference	% Difference
Hitless in Seattle	0.328	53	109	47	34	0.580	94	68	0.580	41	0.252
Hope Your Team Sucks 1975-2000	0.367	60	102	39	42	0.481	78	84	0.481	18	0.114
I Love Lamp	0.476	77	85	47	34	0.580	94	68	0.580	17	0.105
GPs Gift of no Nething	0.545	88	74	51	30	0.630	102	60	0.630	14	0.084
No rain delays under the dome	0.410	66	96	40	41	0.494	80	82	0.494	14	0.084
Kingdon Schadenfraude	0.484	78	84	46	35	0.568	92	70	0.568	14	0.084
NJ Turd Burglars	0.473	77	85	44	37	0.543	88	74	0.543	11	0.070
Pride of the Shortbus	0.390	63	99	37	44	0.457	74	88	0.457	11	0.067
You Can Unscrew A Lightbulb	0.592	96	66	52	29	0.642	104	58	0.642	8	0.050
The Genie's Lamp	0.537	87	75	47	34	0.580	94	68	0.580	7	0.043
Winning Optional	0.453	73	89	40	41	0.494	80	82	0.494	7	0.041
Free Popsicles	0.456	74	88	39	42	0.481	78	84	0.481	4	0.026
ROUSTABOUTS Take My Team Please	0.603	98	64	50	31	0.617	100	62	0.617	2	0.015
Bargain Basement Braves	0.546	88	74	44	37	0.543	88	74	0.543	0	-0.003
Unintended Consequences	0.584	95	67	46	35	0.568	92	70	0.568	-3	-0.016
Ugly and Worse	0.486	79	83	37	44	0.457	74	88	0.457	-5	-0.029
Nebbish Homeboys	0.519	84	78	39	42	0.481	78	84	0.481	-6	-0.038
Expertise in Sucky P Shines Finally	0.385	62	100	26	55	0.321	52	110	0.321	-10	-0.064
The. Cuckolds	0.700	113	49	50	31	0.617	100	62	0.617	-13	-0.082
The Mighty Cobra	0.376	61	101	22	59	0.272	44	118	0.272	-17	-0.105
Bad to the Bone	0.524	85	77	33	48	0.407	66	96	0.407	-19	-0.116
Festering Piles of Putresence	0.548	89	73	33	48	0.407	66	96	0.407	-23	-0.141
Beavis & Butthead Do Whatifsports	0.653	106	56	37	44	0.457	74	88	0.457	-32	-0.197
Ask Me About My Beanie Baby Collection	0.572	93	69	26	55	0.321	52	110	0.321	-41	-0.251

Quite proud to be the top overperformer so far! Does that mean I'm due for a great fall in the second half? Probably.