http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=400916243

Couple years ago Kansas trailed West Virginia at home by 14 with under 4 to play. KU won the game.

Was the game engine broken, or did KU adjust and start making clutch shots?

I dunno man. I've seen plenty of weird HD upsets over the years, and plenty of wild comebacks.

Deck often seems "stacked" against us after a painful loss, but it's equally fair/unfair to everyone.

Posted by kcsundevil on 9/30/2018 2:52:00 PM (view original):
I dunno man. I've seen plenty of weird HD upsets over the years, and plenty of wild comebacks.

Deck often seems "stacked" against us after a painful loss, but it's equally fair/unfair to everyone.

Not sure what you’re arguing here. Are you skeptical that it works the way I outlined, re-weighting the probability mid-game; or are you just cool with that? If former, I’ll do a little digging, but I’m pretty sure that is the way it works.

If latter, are you then cool with a casino tampering with a deck to cool a hot hand? That’s essentially what we’re looking at.

Posted by shoe3 on 9/30/2018 3:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kcsundevil on 9/30/2018 2:52:00 PM (view original):
I dunno man. I've seen plenty of weird HD upsets over the years, and plenty of wild comebacks.

Deck often seems "stacked" against us after a painful loss, but it's equally fair/unfair to everyone.

Not sure what you’re arguing here. Are you skeptical that it works the way I outlined, re-weighting the probability mid-game; or are you just cool with that? If former, I’ll do a little digging, but I’m pretty sure that is the way it works.

If latter, are you then cool with a casino tampering with a deck to cool a hot hand? That’s essentially what we’re looking at.

If the sim has a built in modifier to "cool a hot hand," it seems to work in a way that produces reasonable results, and I'm cool with it.

This is to be distinguished from recruiting, which produces bizarre results like D2 schools beating D1s for D1-hopeful recruits while Sim D1s end up taking garbage players or numerous walk ons.

It's strange to me that you're OK with the bizarre recruiting system but you're complaining the #2 team in the country came back from an ice-cold first half to beat you at home.

Here’s a thread with a little background. I’m sure there are others.

The recruiting system isn’t bizarre. It’s probability simulating a choice that users aren’t in control of. It’s completely reasonable that D2 schools beat out D1 schools when they prioritize the recruit much higher, and put in a lot more effort.

A team being ice cold in the first half should not trigger a re-weighted probability. That isn’t how probability works, and it’s certainly not how real life basketball works. If you flip heads 8 times in a row, you aren’t more likely to flip tails next. The probability stays the same.

Also it wasn’t a home game, it was a NT game. HCA plays no part in this instance.

Just so we’re all clear, “coming back from an ice cold first half” is, in this case, scoring 16 points in the first half, 61 in the second.

I tend to agree with you shoe3. Even though I'm new to the game, I believe there should be more upsets to make it more realistic.

This is the first that I've heard of this. I've only been actively playing HD for just under 2 real-life years.

This is alarming. And I agree, it's a horrible thing to program into the sim. I've seen drastic swings between first half and second half for a number of my teams games . . . some in my favor, some against. I just thought it was random probability, not a programmed adjustment.

I'm really not happy to hear this.

Observationally, I don’t think it’s just a halftime adjustment, either. I suspect it can be triggered at any point where a team outperforms expectations by x amount.

Posted by shoe3 on 9/30/2018 3:33:00 PM (view original):
Here’s a thread with a little background. I’m sure there are others.

The recruiting system isn’t bizarre. It’s probability simulating a choice that users aren’t in control of. It’s completely reasonable that D2 schools beat out D1 schools when they prioritize the recruit much higher, and put in a lot more effort.

A team being ice cold in the first half should not trigger a re-weighted probability. That isn’t how probability works, and it’s certainly not how real life basketball works. If you flip heads 8 times in a row, you aren’t more likely to flip tails next. The probability stays the same.

Your link is to a five year old tinfoil hat thread that offers no supporting evidence.

I'm not saying you're wrong, it would be fascinating if you're right, but I wish you could do better than this.

Just so we understand each other, you’re just not convinced it works like that? You’re right in that I don’t know for sure - I’m not a programmer, and I don’t have first hand knowledge of the “admissions” referenced in that thread, although I do find gillespie’s confirmation pretty significant; although I disagree with him a lot about how the game should work in some areas, he was not known for just pulling things out his *** on stuff like that. I suppose you could use the advance search, too. I know there were others referencing it about this time (which is when I started playing, which is maybe why it’s stuck with me).

But tinfoil hat? Come on, that’s skepticism done poorly. It may or may not be verified, but it’s certainly reasonable. A 16 to 61 point shift between halves is not well explained by normal regression to the mean.

Just to be clear, 15 of those 61 points is due to your setting of intentionally fouling beginning with 2 minutes remaining (of which your opponent went 15 for 20 from the line).

And why didn't you post about this supposed issue when you scored 19 points vs. Piedmont in the first half, then scored 48 in the 2nd half to win (or do you think you should of lost that game).

I'm in agreement with Shoe on both counts-- recruiting and simulations.

With the simulations, i do remember a thread with Seble or maybe a chat with Seble, and from what i remember he described a sim adjustment to account for one team getting red-hot. I remember getting aggravated that my mediocre teams would in a sense have to beat an opponent twice. The thread or chat would have been sometime in 2014, when i was still in Div-3 or maybe just promoted to Div-2. I started HD in September of 2013. I'll try to find it.