League 11 (2007-15)

Pick 1.13: 2007 Jones, Chipper
Unlike past drafts, there are no uber-hitting studs. There are only 2 players with a salary over $10m and those are only just barely. The top of the pitching crop is better, led by Arrietas, Kershaws, and Greinkes but they were long gone by my pick–the top 4 picks were all pitchers with 4 others going before me as well. I had 2015 Harper rated as the top hitter but he was gone along with 2011 Bautista’s big season and Chipper’s best year in this window (2008).

My top pitching option was 2011 Verlander, a pretty good option but with a bit of a HR problem, and the hitting options were 2008 or 09 Pujols, 2007 Chipper, or 2009 Mauer. While I had 08 Pujols rated slightly higher, both 3B and Catcher have big dropoffs after the top few guys. 3B, in particular, has very few non-righty options. In fact, the best lefty is maybe 2008 Aubrey Huff? There may not be a pure lefty primary 3B drafted. That leaves just a few switch-hitters–a couple Chippers, a couple Sandovals, Chase Headley, and maybe Chone Figgins. Given that, I opted for Chipper, who should also keep me pretty high in Round 2 to hopefully grab Pujols or Mauer.

Pick 2.04: 2009 Mauer, Joe
There were just 6 picks between me but they took nearly all my targets–2011 Verlander, both Pujols, and the next-best starter, 2014 Felix. Luckily, 09 Mauer was still there and was a no-brainer for me with his 602 PA and OPS# over 1.000. Only 11 Napoli can compare as a hitter and he’s right handed with only 432 PA. The D+ arm is the only negative for Mauer, but he’s a good enough hitter I can slide him to DH a little bit if I get him a good platoon-mate. Can I also get by with just one catcher? Probably not quite.

Pick 3.03: 2008 Ramirez, Manny (LAD partial)
Manny’s LAD partial only has 229 PA but it’s the best hitting by 100 points of OPS in this era (over Harper). His B/D- OF defense isn’t great, but he can play out there or DH. And while it’s only 229 PA, that means almost all of them get to come against lefties. Too early for a short-side platoon player? Yeah, probably. The forum mumblings have started on my draft position and this may move me all the way to the top of next round, so added bonus there!

Pick 4.01: 2013 Uehara, Koji
The best hitter in my rankings is 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury, but I hesitated to pull the trigger given he’s a lower OBP guy whose value is more in speed/defense, average, and volume (732 PA). Is he that much better than 2013 Shin-Soo Choo who has a much higher OBP but is slightly worse (but still good!) in speed, defense, and volume? I also considered 2010 Tulo but I like the depth at SS over the next few rounds including other versions of Tulo that could be available later on. I did consider going with 2010 King Felix with his 250 IP as the best remaining starting pitcher. I have him rated a few spots lower but starting pitchers do tend to go faster and having the volume is always helpful. But I just couldn’t pass up Uehara who is the best reliever in this era. 74 innings with a 0.78 ERC#! The salary is a bit inflated at over $6m but can’t pass up the quality.

Pick 5.02: 2013 Tulowitzki, Troy
Never want to be on the wrong side of a run, but with 5 shortstops taken since my last pick, I was down to just two I really wanted, or I would wait until the end of the draft. Ellsbury is still available as are 3 pitchers I like–2014 Dillon Betances as the best reliever and two low-inning starters/long relievers in 2012 Kris Medlen and 2007 Chris Young. But I decided to get the hitting production at SS while I still have the chance. I went with 2013 Tulo over his 2009 version which had about 100 more PA as the 13 version has a significantly better OBP and some better range. Though just 512 PA, there are actually quite a few small PA shortstops that will pair very nicely with him.

Pick 6.03: 2011 Ellsbury, Jacoby
I went back and forth on this one quite a bit. My rankings had Ellsbury as the #1 option, but I still see Choo lower down as a very similar player. I thought hard about 2011 Berkman as the best switch-hitter left, but 1B is just so deep including some really nice switch-hitting seasons by Teixiera among others. I also considered 2B with either 2010 Cano or 2009 Utley, but there’s still quite a few lefty 2B and even 2015 Panik is a nice fall-back option as just the lefty side of a platoon. However, one of my plans was to take 2011 Zobrist as a super-utility guy later on but he got taken last round! Taking someone like Panik would probably necessitate two infield backups to cover the shortfalls of Panik, Chipper, and Tulo. That’s not ideal. Lastly, I considered a couple of the same pitchers (Betances and Young, Medlen got selected). I finally settled on Ellsbury as I will need some full-time hitters to allow me to piece together the rest of my lineup and bullpen. His 732 PA are a nice bonus, he plays CF, has speed, and can bat leadoff or in the middle of the lineup.

Pick 7.06: 2010 Morneau, Justin
There are other 1B with really good seasons and more PA, but Morneau’s 2010 year is one of the best part-time seasons in this era. He’ll be able to handle most of a lineup spot vs RHP and play 1B, DH, or even OF. He and Manny aren’t quite a full platoon (only 577 PA combined) but they’ll essentially be one (albeit likely at different positions).

Pick 8.06: 2008 Teixeria, Mark
There were some Beltrans and Vottos I had been looking at, and I considered taking one of the Canos or Utleys at 2B, but 08 Teixeira gives me a ton of optionality. First, he’s a switch-hitter. Second, he’s an A/A defender at 1B so he can play 1B or a corner OF spot with no problem, plus has a good enough bat to DH. And third, he’s got a great partial season that I can switch to if I want–his full season and partial are about equal value as I calculate it, so can go either way depending on how the rest of the roster shakes out.

Pick 9.06: 2009 Utley, Chase
I probably could’ve waited on 2B, but this version of Utley gives me a full-time option with nearly .400 OBP and good defense. I’ve already lost out on Zobrist and with Manny, Morneau, and possible Teixeira, I’m stacking up partials so I’ll need to get some full-time guys. When eblankenstei took 08 Utley the pick before me, that sealed the deal for my choice.

Pick 10.07: 2008 Furcal, Rafael
When 2008 Felipe Lopez went the pick after my Utley selection, I knew I’d probably need to accelerate my backup infield options. Unfortunately, I probably need two guys as there’s not really someone who can fill SS and 3B/2B for me. I wanted either Furcal or 2015 Seager. If Seager had more PA, I would have grabbed him as he has ratings at 3B, but with only 113 PA, he could only (barely) fill my SS need. So I went with Furcal how has about 50 more PA and more speed. Him and Tulo combine for 675 PA or so, so that should be enough for the SS spot.

Pick 11.04: 2007 Beltran, Carlos
Lots of similar options left out there in the OF/1B/DH universe. I went with Beltran as although I don’t need his defense (Ellsbury is a very good CF option), it’s still nice to have A+ range. He doesn’t have the best OBP, per usual, but everything else is solid. He should have enough PA to hit lower in the order and play an everyday CF, shifting Ellsbury to a corner spot. My third OF spot may use Teixeira, Morneau, or Ramirez, depending on what else I get. For my 1B/OF/DH spots (5 total), I have either 3 ½ or 4 accounted for (depending on which Teixeira version I go with) between Ellsbury, Beltra, Teixeira, Morneau, and Manny.

Pick 12.05: 2011 Votto, Joey
This pick pretty much shoehorns me into playing a 1B in the OF, but all of my 1B have great defense ratings. I preferred Votto to a true OF like Braun. I thought about 2011 Berkman, who has 1B and OF ratings, but both are very poor, Votto will play better OF defense than Berkman. Berkman is a better hitter with a bit more speed and is a switch-hitter, but Votto has better defense and 130 more PA.

Pick 13.06: 2015 Cueto, Johnny
Pick 14.08: 2007 Putz, J.J.
Pick 15.05: 2010 Benoit, Joaquin
Pick 16.05: 2010 Wagner, Billy
The time has come to shift to pitching. I have 11 hitters and I can get away with just 12 if I need to. I would have to go with just one catcher, batting Mauer 9th to try and stretch his 602 PA. I’d use the full version of Teixeira and likely play him as my backup 3B to spell Chipper (only 600 PA). Then my last pick would be some sort of 1B/OF/DH with at least the 500+ PA I need. If I can add a 2nd or 3rd spot, I can choose between adding another catcher or 3B, and can consider shifting to Teixeira’s partial. But first, I’ll need to know how many pitching slots I’ll need. I started out by grabbing Cueto’s 131 IP partial as the best season over 100 innings left. I then grabbed three top relievers, setting myself up for a slightly higher pick in the double-pick round, when I’ll shift to starters.

Pick 17.05: 2008 Lincecum, Tim
Pick 17.05: 2007 Kershaw, Clayton
Lincecum has over 200 IP and pretty good HR and OAV, with BB being his main issue. Kershaw is similar, with an even bigger BB issue and fewer innings but gives me a lefty. Up to over 800 innings, will need probably 2-3 more starters with these next picks, then can figure out if I want more relievers or more hitters.

Pick 18.11: 2009 Haren, Danny
Pick 18.11: 2010 Halladay, Roy
I mapped out my pitching spots and if I could get about 450 more starter innings, I could likely finish with 3 relievers around 60-70 innings each and leave an extra spot for a hitter. 2009 Danny Haren often falls in these drafts due to his high 0.86 HR# but everything else about his profile is very good and with 229 IP this late in the draft, beggars can’t be choosers. Halladay’s main issue is a .249 OAV in addition to an elevated HR# of 0.72, but he rarely walks anybody and his 251 IP make him by far the most enticing high-volume option. Getting 480 IP from these two for sure opens up a hitting spot for me, making my puzzle-completing options there much easier.

Pick 19.16: 2010 Cruz, Nelson
Pick 19.16: 2013 Gonzalez, Carlos
I hadn’t even realized my starting pitching spree (4 straight picks) had dropped me to last in the draft order! I was 5th just two rounds ago. At this point, doesn’t matter too much. The question here was whether to lock in a couple relievers or grab my hitters or do one of both. I went to map out my hitting exactly. I ended up feeling okay rolling with just Mauer’s 602 PA and batting him 9th. If I need to punt a couple games to rest him, hopefully can do that in some less important games. At 3B, I considered 2009 Youkilis who has a good OBP and solid 3B ratings, but instead I’m going to roll with Teixeira or Votto there when Chipper needs a rest. That allows me to get two better hitters–one lefty and one righty–and to upgrade to Teixeira’s partial as well. Cruz will play RF vs lefties, allowing Manny to DH. CarGo will DH vs righties, with Morneau playing RF. Cruz will spell him in right as needed. While I may lose out on my top relievers, I will gain the benefit of picking all 3 at once so I know exactly how many innings I’ll need from each.

Pick 20.16: 2013 Jansen, Kenley
Pick 20.16: 2015 Betances, Dellin
Pick 20.16: 2007 Perez, Rafael
These 3 relievers get me up over 1500 innings. Hopefully only need to use closer to 1400 and can reduce Halladay’s innings, but nice to have the cushion there if needed. Jansen and Betances are righties while Perez joins Kershaw and Wagner as my only lefties.

Ballpark: Fenway Park
I have a good average team with good doubles and HR power, but my pitching staff is homer-prone. How much do I protect them at the expense of my hitters? I felt like this was a perfect Fenway team, with +2 for singles (my pitchers have low OAV#), +4 for doubles, and +1/0 for HR, which is pretty neutral but gives a bit of a boost to Manny, Tulo, Cruz, and my switch-hitters against lefties. I should have enough innings to weather a higher offensive environment and I haven’t put a team in Fenway yet.

Lineup:
My actual lineup will be a bit different from my optimal lineup to preserve some PA. I have 5 full-time hitters (Mauer, Utley, Ellsbury, Beltran, and Votto) plus two more who will handle the bulk of the at-bats at their position in Chipper (Teixeira backup) and Tulo (Furcal backup). The other two spots are mostly platoons with Morneau and CarGo as the lefties and Manny and Cruz as the righties. I’ll get to start nearly all lefties (including switch-hitters) vs RHP, with Tulo being the only righty getting significant time (Furcal only has 164 PA). Against lefties, I will have to start 4 left-handed hitters (Mauer, Utley, Votto, and Ellsbury), but will have righties or switch-hitters in the other 5 spots.